Washington D.C. Symposium on "Iran in the
1980's"
Organized
by:
The Institute for International and Economic Studies, Teheran
and the Stanford Research Institute
"The U.S. and Iran, An Increasing
Patnership"
Address by Sydney Sober - U.S. State Dpt.
I am pleased to convey Secretary Vance's best wishes
to this symposium for a successful meeting. The secretary has already
visited Iran (during his first months in office) and has closely followed
U.S.-Iranian relations. We are looking forward to the visit by His Imperial
Majesty the Shahanshah in November 1977. President Carter himself
is also planning to visit Tehran before the end of the year. I cite these
things as reflections of the special importance we attach to U.S. relations
with Iran. Thus, the broad theme of the symposium - Iran's prospects in
the 1980s and their implications for
U.S.-Iran relations - has particular significance at this time.
The scholars and other experts participating in this symposium will doubtless have detailed projections and we are looking forward to learning from them. Political and economic forecasting can be a fine art but it is not yet an exact science. R&D efforts aimed at achieving a reliable crystal ball have not kept pace with other technological achievements of recent years. However, the practitioner in virtually any important field, including inter ational relations, acts intelligently only when he takes account of what the future seems to have in store.
In the case of Iran and Iran-U.S. relations, I see the future decade marked by increasing partnership. In spelling out some aspects of our future relationship, I think we have something to learn from the past. Particularly, I would like to note some of the developments of the past decade. A considerable momentum has been built up; it will surely carry into the decade ahead.
The close ties between Iran and the United States originated some three decades ago out of a shared concern about the security of our two countries. For some years, our official relationship focused particularly on the tangible threats to the security of Iran from its northern neighbor. This was the period of the Cold War and the birth of the Baghdad Pact, which then became CENTO.
The past decade has seen an important development of our relationship, with Iran demonstrating an increasing ability and willingness to play a broad role in contributing - independently, but in close cooperation with the United States - to the security of the world political system. Iran's enhanced role on the world stage has most significantly grown out of its increasing economic and military strength and its far-seeing leadership.
Iran has naturally given very high priority to assuring the security of its own borders and its relationships with neighboring countries. With the departure of the British security presence in the Persian Gulf, Iran has devoted major attention to assuring the stability of this vital artery of transportation through which a major share of the world's oil moves. While maintaining its close relations with its allies, Pakistan and Turkey, it has sought to build new agreements with Afghanistan and has resolved a long-standing border dispute with Iraq.
A bit further afield, Iran has complemented, in an important and balanced way, the United States' efforts to encourage a just and durable settlement between the Arab states and Israel. This is reflected in Iran's own good relations with the countries involved and its membership in the U.N. Middle East peace-keeping force.
In the past several years, Iran has expanded its relationships with India, Australia, and other countries in the Indian Ocean region. In recent months, it has played an active role in seeking to bring or restore stability to several areas of tension in Africa.
In the decade ahead, we can confidently look to Iran to play a role of increasing importance not only in its immediate region, but in other areas where peace and stability are threatened. For our part, we expect to collaborate increasingly with Iran in support of common goals on the broader world scene. Our cooperation will be important in the development of a responsible world system.
Throughout the years of our cooperation, an important element has been our military supply relationship. In the past few years, Iran's purchases of U.S. weapons and military technology have risen sharply in response to its perception of its need to develop a modern, effective, national defensive force. At the same time, Iran's capacity to finance these increased purchases has risen commensurately. We have considered it an integral part of our relationship to be responsive to Iran's legitimate and reasonable requests for the purchase of military equipment. And Iran has seen its own development of a reasonably credible defensive capability as an integral component of its own ability to play a responsible, moderating role in the political arena.
Now let us look briefly at the economic side. Ten years ago, we were just phasing out the remnants of a U.S. economic aid mission that had been administering our assistance program in Iran for some years. Total nonmilitary trade between our two countries was something under $300 million. Iran's GNP was about $6 billion.
Today Iran is itself an important source of economic aid to a number of countries, both directly and through international financial institutions. List year, trade between our two countries was $3.8 billion, with an increase of more than II times in our exports to Iran as compared with 1966. And Iran's GNP last year had risen to about $67 billion also some II times what it was a decade before. These figures, perhaps, overstate the real change because of inflation, but the increases are, nevertheless, extremely impressive.
Our stake in Iran's economic development is reflected in the thriving Irano-American Chamber of Commerce which has its headquarters in Tehran. It represents some 450 business firms devoted not only to maintaining current trade links but to developing and expanding new ones. Three years ago, the United States and Iran established a joint commission to develop new programs of economic cooperation. A U.S.-Iranian Business Council complements our governmental effort by encouraging links between the private sectors in both countries.
In the decade ahead, we expect our economic and fommercial ties to grow at an important rate. Iran's ambitious plans for internal development will be generating major demands for the best equipment and technological help that it can obtain abroad. Planned development will touch all sections of the Iranian economy. One very noteworthy example is the supply of electric power - the Iranian government has stated its desire to purchase eight nuclear reactors from the United States to supply electric power; the cost of these reactors will go into many billions of dollars. We are, at this time, negotiating an agreement with Iran on the civilian uses of nuclear energy, which will open the way for the sale of the power reactors in question.
We can expect to see our commercial relationship concentrate heavily in other fields of higher technology. This will be consonant with Iran's need as its economy matures and also with Iran's increasing ability to absorb new technologies.
We will also see, in the decade ahead, increasing exchanges between our two countries on economic issues of global importance. Iran's policies and resources already permit it to play a growing world role. It was an effective participant in last year's Conference on International Economic Cooperation in Paris. Its interest in various North-South issues was also seen in its valuable participation in the efforts to establish the United Nations' new International Fund for Agricultural Development; at the crucial mome~~t, Iran contributed generously to putting the fund "over the top."
I have not thus far mentioned oil. Oil has, as we know, been the principal fuel - in figurative as well as literal terms - of Iran's spectacular economic growth in recent years. Iran is the world's second largest exporter of oil and will probably remain so for the decade ahead. We have disagreed with Iran over the level of oil prices and the methodology of raising it during the past four years. We remain concerned over the impact of precipitate oil price rises on delicate world and national economic balances. Considerations of global interdependence and the need to encourage sound economic growth in both industrialized and less-developed countries will continue to weigh heavily with us.
We believe there must be a fair balance between the legitimate de mands of oil producers and consumers alike. For our own part. we must do what we can to ease the burden by responsible policies of oil conservation as well as the development of alternative sources at home. It is our hope that on this subject, as on so many others, the United States and Iran will find a community of interest that will guide their policies along mutually advantageous paths.
I would like tdosay a few words also about the educational and social sectors, key elements in any nation's growth. Some 10 years ago, there were fewer than two million primary and secondary school students in Iran: today that figure exceeds six million. Ten years ago there were some 40,000 Iranian university students: today the total is nearly 150,000. The Shah recently set a goal of 500,000 university students for 10 years from now.
Throughout this development, we have welcomed Iranian students to American schools. Iran today has its first U.S.-educated prime minister. Nine other members of the present Iranian cabinet have attended American colleges. And the distinguished ambassador of Iran to the United States is also in~this category.
We are proud of this type of "American connection." Today we have between 30,000 and 40,000 Iranian students in American colleges. They constitute by far the largest foreign student contingent in the United States. Nearly 80 formal aftiliations link American and Iranian universities in faculties ranging from veterinary medicine to business and management. Several Iranian universities have programs of American studies. On the occasion of our bicentennial last year, the Empress of Iran endowed a new American studies program at Pablavi University in Shiraz, a universitv which was originally established in close cooperation with the University of Pennsylvania.
In the decade ahead, it is possible that the number of Iranian undergraduate students in the United States will decrease as educational opportunities increase in Iran itself. However, Iran's goals of technological and scientific advancement will lead to increased emphasis on advanced degrees; this may result in increasing the number of Iranian students in the United States at the graduate level.
In addition to these developments in education, the Shah has initiated a number of major social development programs, such as in health, to help improve the quality of life as the economy grows. In that connection, we should take note of some important developments in Iran in recent months relating to the field of human rights. These include a more open attitude towards certain of Iran's judicial and penal procedures. A very recent law providing increased due-process protection for defendants in state security cases, for example, has been noted with much interest in the United States.
To sum up, we see the close relationship between our two countries as resting on shared interests and goals - or to put it another way, on a broad overlap of our national interests. We can expect the range of these shared interests to grow in the decade ahead because our relationship is not static but dynamic. If it is true that the United States is marked by a state of "permanent revolution," then it is also true that Iran is now undergoing a period of major transformation. The needs of each of our countries will change as the decade progresses but our common requirements should provide the basis for even closer cooperation.
This trend should provide for an increasing partnership. It was said that our relationship in the years immediately following World War II was one-sided. The United States now deals with an increasingly strong friend whose voice is heard and respected widely. Our relationship permits an increased sharing of responsibilities and tasks. The relationship has served us well for 30 years. I predict that it will grow in importance in the decade ahead.